With this in mind, we pulled the margin of victory for every NFL game since the start of the 2003 season to determine the most important spreads in NFL betting.įor the purposes of this analysis, I left out margins of 21 or more points since point spreads in that range are so rare. To be an informed NFL bettor, knowing the most (and least) common NFL margins of victory is key when deciding when to place your wagers. It can be helpful to think of it as an estimated margin of victory, or the. You want to find -2.5's and +3.5's if you can, especially if the rest of the market is at -3/+3. Sportsbooks set a point spread for every NFL game. The spread in this game has fallen from 6.5 to 3.5, and there are some betting folks I respect who are picking the Jets to cover or even win outright.

some margins of victory are much more common than others.įor example, field goals are so frequent that since the start of the 2003 NFL season, 14.8% of all games have finished with a margin of victory of three points - by far the most common margin.Īnd this matters when you're betting, of course.įrom an NFL betting standpoint, this makes getting on and off spreads of three points extremely important in terms of maximizing value. Thanks to the ways that NFL teams score - like three points for field goals, six points for touchdowns, extra points, two-point conversions, etc.

Nfl betting what point spreads to avoid